Oscar Predictions and Personal Choices

Best Picture
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: Hugo or Tree of Life
This has been a foregone conclusion for a few months.  Some even predicted the win after Cannes in May.  The Artist, whether you believe it is worthy or not, is almost exactly what the Academy loves: an old, simple story that celebrates movies.  That said, two (of the five) better options also celebrate wonderful things.  Hugo is a wonderful celebration of old movies and the need for study and preservation.  Tree of Life is, simply, about life and experience of living and learning in life.

Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Terrance Malick, Tree of Life
Since 1950, the DGA Award and Oscar have not matched only 6 times, the last time was nine years ago.  Hazanavicius won DGA and will win here.  It was simply put his vision, with Harvey Weinstein's lobbying, that made The Artist I phenomenon that it was.  But if you look at all the movies released in 2011, it is Malick's vision on his most personal of projects that stands out.

Best Actor
Should and Will Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
The one "upset" I will predict.  The award is simply between Clooney and the real heart & soul of The Artist, Jean Dujardin.   Both were fantastic.  But what Clooney is able to do in the last few scenes is simply remarkable.

Best Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Win: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Another two way race.  This time, between two women who shared a screen three years ago,Viola Davis and 17-time nominee Meryl Streep.  Streep, playing Margaret Thatcher, will once again be a bridesmaid.  Davis would become the 2nd African American to win Best Actress.  But, when you rent Dragon Tattoo in a few months, pay very close attention to Mara as Lisbeth.  I think she gives the best acting performance of the year.  You will see why.

Best Supporting Actor & Actress
Should & Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners and Octavia Spencer
These races are over.  If anyone else wins, there needs to be a recount.  PriceWaterhouse messed up.

Best Original Screenplay
Should and Will Win: Midnight in Paris
He routinely snubs them but the Academy loves Woody Allen.  Tonight, he should get his 3rd screenplay Oscar and first since 1987.  The Artist love could spill over to here but I don't think so.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should and Will Win: The Descendants
He may have won before, but Alexander Payne may have surpassed 2004's Sideways in the writing aspect.  There is little to no competition.

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Rango
The category stinks this year.  This March release has been buzzed about since it opened.  No contest.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Seperation

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Paradise Lost 3

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Hugo

Best Cinematography
Should and Will Win: Tree of Life

Best Costume Design
Will Win:  The Artist

Best Editing
Will Win: The Artist

Best Makeup
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Score
Will Win: The Artist

Best Song
Should and Will Win: "Man or Muppet", The Muppets

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Hugo

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Hugo

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Animated Short
Will Win: La Luna

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Barber of Birmingham

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: The Shore