Friday, February 22, 2013

The Almost Oscar Winners Predictions


* = will win                 # = runner-up              $ = personal choice

Best Picture
Amour
Argo*
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln#
Silver Linings Playbook$
Zero Dark Thirty
            Until it came out, ZDT was the favorite.  Then politics kicked in.  Post-nominations, Lincoln looked to have it in the bag with the most noms.  Then every other awards organization voted.  Argo, to many, has been the favorite for weeks.  Until the WGA, I was sure of Lincoln but alas, Argo will get it, becoming the fourth film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination (first since Driving Miss Daisy in 1989; the other two are in the first five years of the Oscars).

Directing
Amour, Michael Haneke
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, Ang Lee
Lincoln, Steven Spielberg*$
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell#
            No Affleck, no Bigelow, no Hooper (!!!), no problem?  Not so fast!  Lincoln has lost a bunch of momentum in recent weeks.  It will be way closer than it should be but Spielberg will win.  A Lee or Russell win wouldn’t shock me.

Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*$
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master#
Denzel Washington, Flight
            DDL may be the best on the planet.  He has been unstoppable since Lincoln came out in mid November.  If only The Master had a non-acting nomination, then it would be close.  Like Earth to the sun close instead of Earth to Saturn close.

Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*$
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour#
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
            Jennifer Lawrence’s rise to stardom has been lightning fast and a breath of fresh air.  She has the looks & talent for a career that will last decades.  Can’t wait to see what she does next, which will be her acceptance speech.  Riva & Chastain have slight chances.  Very slight.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*$
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained#
            Any of these five could win.  But TLJ won SAG, which means a lot. 

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln#
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables*$
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
            The prophesy spoken by Julie Andrews 12 years ago comes true as Hathaway wins walking away.  But keep in mind: Sally Field has never lost when nominated.  Who cares if she has only been nominated twice.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Argo, Screenplay by Chris Terrio*
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, Screenplay by David Magee
Lincoln, Screenplay by Tony Kushner#
Silver Linings Playbook, Screenplay by David O. Russell$
            Like Best Picture, Lincoln had this in the bag until Argo took over.  But SLP is sitting there for the possible upset.  Will be interesting.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Amour, Written by Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Written by Quentin Tarantino*
Flight, Written by John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola$
Zero Dark Thirty, Written by Mark Boal#
            There is no one on the planet hoping for vote splitting and a Moonrise Kingdom upset.  But alas, it’s Boal vs. Tarantino Round 2.  Tarantino in a split decision.

Animated Feature Film
Brave, Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman#
Frankenweenie, Tim Burton
ParaNorman, Sam Fell and Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph, Rich Moore*$
            Full disclosure: only saw two of these.  Brave was a dud after the big twist.  Wreck-It Ralph was formula, but formula done wonderfully.  Hope it wins. 

Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda#
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins*$
            Deakins isn’t losing again.  Not for the tenth time.  Not even to something as “beautiful” as Life of Pi. 

Costume Design
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran*$
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado#
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
            Didn’t see the movie but I have seen pictures.  Anna Karenina is beautiful.  Will deservedly win.

Film Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg#
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg*$
            Mark my words: William Goldenberg will win Best Film Editing.  For which movie, we’ll see.
           

Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel*
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Les Misérables, Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell#
            If The Iron Lady won last year, why not Hitchcock?

Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott*
Marvel's The Avengers, Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick$#
Prometheus, Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman, Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
            Fact: A Best Picture nominee has never lost to a non-BP nominee in Best Visual Effects.  Life of Pi is a BP nominee.  Nuff said.

Music (Original Score)
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna*
Lincoln, John Williams#
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
            The dumbest branch once again skips the two best scores of 2012: Cloud Atlas & Moonrise Kingdom.  Could really care less about any of them.

Music (Original Song)
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi's Lullaby” from Life of Pi Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from Skyfall Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth*#$
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
            Yeah, that’s right.  The alternate to “Skyfall” is “Skyfall”.  If it loses, watch out!  The End Is Nigh!!!

Production Design
Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer*
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
Les Misérables, Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi, Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Lincoln, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson#$

Sound Editing
Argo, Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn#
Django Unchained, Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi, Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
Skyfall, Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson*$

Sound Mixing
Argo, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia#
Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes*
Life of Pi, Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
Lincoln, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
Skyfall, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson$
            Action movies win Sound Editing, musicals win Sound Mixing.  End of story.
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras, Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
The Gatekeepers, Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon
How to Survive a Plague, David France and Howard Gertler#
The Invisible War, Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering
Searching for Sugar Man, Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn*
            SfSM has won just about every major documentary award.  Why not Oscar?

I have no idea about the last few, just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
Foreign Language Film
Amour, Austria*
Kon-Tiki, Norway
No, Chile#
A Royal Affair, Denmark
War Witch, Canada

Short Film (Animated)
Adam and Dog, Minkyu Lee#
Fresh Guacamole, PES
Head over Heels, Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare, David Silverman
Paperman, John Kahrs*$

Short Film (Live Action)
Asad, Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr*
Curfew, Shawn Christensen#
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw), Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry, Yan England

Documentary Short Subject
Inocente, Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine*
Kings Point, Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
Mondays at Racine, Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
Open Heart, Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern#
Redemption, Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

Predictions Summary
Picture: Argo*
Director: Lincoln, Steven Spielberg*$
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*$
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*$
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*$
Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables*$
A. Screenplay: Argo, Screenplay by Chris Terrio*
O. Screenplay: Django Unchained, Written by Quentin Tarantino*
Animated: Wreck-It Ralph, Rich Moore*$
Cinematography: Skyfall, Roger Deakins*$
Costume Design: Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran*$
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg*$
Makeup: Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel*
Visual Effects: Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott*
Score: Life of Pi, Mychael Danna*
Song: “Skyfall” from Skyfall Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth*#$
Production Design: Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer*
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson*$
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes*
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man, Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn*
Foreign Language: Amour, Austria*
Animated Short: Paperman, John Kahrs*$
Short Film: Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr*
Documentary Short: Inocente, Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine*

Lincoln leads with three wins.  Six movies win two a piece.

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