* = will win #
= runner-up $ = personal
choice
Best Picture
Amour
Argo*
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln#
Silver Linings Playbook$
Zero Dark Thirty
Until
it came out, ZDT was the favorite. Then
politics kicked in. Post-nominations,
Lincoln looked to have it in the bag with the most noms. Then every other awards organization
voted. Argo, to many, has been the
favorite for weeks. Until the WGA, I was
sure of Lincoln but alas, Argo will get it, becoming the fourth film to win
Best Picture without a Best Director nomination (first since Driving Miss Daisy
in 1989; the other two are in the first five years of the Oscars).
Directing
Amour, Michael Haneke
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh
Zeitlin
Life of Pi, Ang Lee
Lincoln, Steven Spielberg*$
Silver Linings Playbook, David O.
Russell#
No
Affleck, no Bigelow, no Hooper (!!!), no problem? Not so fast!
Lincoln has lost a bunch of momentum in recent weeks. It will be way closer than it should be but
Spielberg will win. A Lee or Russell win
wouldn’t shock me.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*$
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master#
Denzel Washington, Flight
DDL
may be the best on the planet. He has
been unstoppable since Lincoln came out in mid November. If only The Master had a non-acting
nomination, then it would be close. Like
Earth to the sun close instead of Earth to Saturn close.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*$
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour#
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern
Wild
Jennifer
Lawrence’s rise to stardom has been lightning fast and a breath of fresh
air. She has the looks & talent for
a career that will last decades. Can’t
wait to see what she does next, which will be her acceptance speech. Riva & Chastain have slight chances. Very slight.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*$
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained#
Any
of these five could win. But TLJ won
SAG, which means a lot.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln#
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables*$
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
The
prophesy spoken by Julie Andrews 12 years ago comes true as Hathaway wins
walking away. But keep in mind: Sally
Field has never lost when nominated. Who
cares if she has only been nominated twice.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Argo, Screenplay by Chris Terrio*
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Screenplay
by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, Screenplay by David Magee
Lincoln, Screenplay by Tony Kushner#
Silver Linings Playbook, Screenplay by
David O. Russell$
Like
Best Picture, Lincoln had this in the bag until Argo took over. But SLP is sitting there for the possible
upset. Will be interesting.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Amour, Written by Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Written by Quentin
Tarantino*
Flight, Written by John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Written by Wes
Anderson & Roman Coppola$
Zero Dark Thirty, Written by Mark Boal#
There
is no one on the planet hoping for vote splitting and a Moonrise Kingdom
upset. But alas, it’s Boal vs. Tarantino
Round 2. Tarantino in a split decision.
Animated Feature Film
Brave, Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman#
Frankenweenie, Tim Burton
ParaNorman, Sam Fell and Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph, Rich Moore*$
Full
disclosure: only saw two of these. Brave
was a dud after the big twist. Wreck-It
Ralph was formula, but formula done wonderfully. Hope it wins.
Cinematography
Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda#
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins*$
Deakins
isn’t losing again. Not for the tenth
time. Not even to something as
“beautiful” as Life of Pi.
Costume Design
Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran*$
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado#
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen
Atwood
Didn’t
see the movie but I have seen pictures.
Anna Karenina is beautiful. Will
deservedly win.
Film Editing
Argo, William Goldenberg#
Life of Pi, Tim Squyres
Lincoln, Michael Kahn
Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy and
Crispin Struthers
Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and
William Goldenberg*$
Mark
my words: William Goldenberg will win Best Film Editing. For which movie, we’ll see.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and
Martin Samuel*
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter
Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
Les Misérables, Lisa Westcott and Julie
Dartnell#
If
The Iron Lady won last year, why not Hitchcock?
Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Joe
Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume
Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott*
Marvel's The Avengers, Janek Sirrs, Jeff
White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick$#
Prometheus, Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood,
Charley Henley and Martin Hill
Snow White and the Huntsman, Cedric
Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
Fact:
A Best Picture nominee has never lost to a non-BP nominee in Best Visual
Effects. Life of Pi is a BP
nominee. Nuff said.
Music (Original Score)
Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna*
Lincoln, John Williams#
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
The
dumbest branch once again skips the two best scores of 2012: Cloud Atlas & Moonrise Kingdom. Could really care less about any of
them.
Music (Original Song)
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice Music
and Lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi's Lullaby” from Life of Pi Music by
Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from Skyfall Music and Lyric
by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth*#$
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables Music by
Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Yeah,
that’s right. The alternate to “Skyfall”
is “Skyfall”. If it loses, watch
out! The End Is Nigh!!!
Production Design
Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah
Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer*
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Production
Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
Les Misérables, Production Design: Eve
Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
Life of Pi, Production Design: David Gropman;
Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Lincoln, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set
Decoration: Jim Erickson#$
Sound Editing
Argo, Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn#
Django Unchained, Wylie Stateman
Life of Pi, Eugene Gearty and Philip
Stockton
Skyfall, Per Hallberg and Karen Baker
Landers
Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson*$
Sound Mixing
Argo, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose
Antonio Garcia#
Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson
and Simon Hayes*
Life of Pi, Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and
Drew Kunin
Lincoln, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and
Ronald Judkins
Skyfall, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and
Stuart Wilson$
Action
movies win Sound Editing, musicals win Sound Mixing. End of story.
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras, Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
The Gatekeepers, Dror Moreh, Philippa
Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon
How to Survive a Plague, David France and
Howard Gertler#
The Invisible War, Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering
Searching for Sugar Man, Malik Bendjelloul
and Simon Chinn*
SfSM
has won just about every major documentary award. Why not Oscar?
I have no idea about the last few, just
throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
Foreign Language Film
Amour, Austria*
Kon-Tiki, Norway
No, Chile#
A Royal Affair, Denmark
War Witch, Canada
Short Film (Animated)
Adam and Dog, Minkyu Lee#
Fresh Guacamole, PES
Head over Heels, Timothy Reckart and
Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare, David
Silverman
Paperman, John Kahrs*$
Short Film (Live Action)
Asad, Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr*
Curfew, Shawn Christensen#
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw), Tom
Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry, Yan England
Documentary Short Subject
Inocente, Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine*
Kings Point, Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
Mondays at Racine, Cynthia Wade and Robin
Honan
Open Heart, Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd
Stern#
Redemption, Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
Predictions Summary
Picture: Argo*
Director: Lincoln, Steven Spielberg*$
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*$
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*$
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*$
Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables*$
A. Screenplay: Argo, Screenplay by Chris Terrio*
O. Screenplay: Django Unchained, Written by Quentin
Tarantino*
Animated: Wreck-It Ralph, Rich Moore*$
Cinematography: Skyfall, Roger Deakins*$
Costume Design: Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran*$
Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor and
William Goldenberg*$
Makeup: Hitchcock, Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and
Martin Samuel*
Visual Effects: Life of Pi, Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume
Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott*
Score: Life of Pi, Mychael Danna*
Song: “Skyfall” from Skyfall Music and Lyric
by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth*#$
Production Design: Anna Karenina, Production Design: Sarah
Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer*
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty, Paul N.J. Ottosson*$
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson
and Simon Hayes*
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man, Malik Bendjelloul
and Simon Chinn*
Foreign Language: Amour, Austria*
Animated Short: Paperman, John Kahrs*$
Short Film: Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr*
Documentary Short: Inocente, Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine*
Lincoln leads with three wins. Six movies win two a piece.
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