Fantasy Box Office: March 11-13

ZOOTOPIA

Cost: 6929 FML Bucks

Estimate: $48.75 million

This record-breaker will without a doubt win the weekend again.  But two big questions: How far will it fall? and Will it compete for the Bonus?  To get a sense of how well it might hold, THE LEGO MOVIE two years ago fell 28.89% on a holiday weekend so a 35% drop is reasonable.  As for the Bonus, I’m not optimistic.  This is too expensive & there are too many lower level options in the competition with better chances.  I’m staying away.

10 CLOVERFIELD LANE

Cost: 334 FML Bucks

Estimate: $28.12 million

The surprise sequel to the 2007 surprise smash found footage horror flick that made over $40 million opening weekend.  While we don’t live in that kind of movie world where marketing can open a movie, a big opening is expected.  How big?  I’ve seen estimates in the mid-30s but I’m not willing to go that far.  But even where I have it, it’s my leader to win the Bonus.

LONDON HAS FALLEN

Cost: 130 FML Bucks

Estimate: $10.8175 million

A moderately successful weekend plus an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore means this could be the surprise Bonus winner if it falls less than 50%.  Will the Tomatometer make any difference this weekend?  The target audience doesn’t care.

THE BROTHERS GRIMSBY

Cost: 129 FML Bucks

Estimate: $7.22 million

Sasha Baron Cohen used to be someone.  BORAT was a shocking success.  BRUNO had a huge weekend then plummeted.  So did THE DICTATOR.  This movie has too much bad buzz to be worth considering.

DEADPOOL

Cost: 110 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.85 million

The fifth weekend of a comic book movie usually means a small decline in theatre count and not that small of a drop.  DEADPOOL will be no different.

THE YOUNG MESSIAH

Cost: 109 FML Bucks

Estimate: $8 million

The second Christian themed movie of the Lenten season but certainly won’t be the last.  This one is a little more Biblical that the previous or next ones.  Not opening as wide nor as advertised as much as either, I expect a decent but not a Bonus contending weekend.

WHISKY TANGO FOXTROT

Cost: 50 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.126 million

This isn’t the feel-good comedy (or straight comedy) audiences were expecting.  This weekend won’t see a hold of an audience.

THE PERFECT MATCH

Cost: 44 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.162 million

A romantic comedy for an underserved, minority audience should be a shoo-in for the Bonus.  But what if that movie only open in 925 theatres?  The Wild Card of the weekend, for sure.

THE REVENANT

Cost: 31 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.04 million

Take my estimate, multiply it by 1.2.  That’s how much this movie should make.  I give up on this movie.

GODS OF EGYPT

Cost: 27 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.82 million

This movie will disappear from about 70% of all theatres.  So will about that much of its box office.

RISEN

Cost: 26 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.795 million

No longer the only Christian themed movie in town.  Should suffer like KFP3 last weekend.

KUNG FU PANDA 3

Cost: 23 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.786 million

Hanging on by a thread.  Zootopia is too huge for this to survive much longer.  What a shame.

EDDIE THE EAGLE

Cost: 21 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.564 million

Americans don’t care about a British skier in a Canadian Olympics.  Should lose at least half its screens & box office.

THE WITCH

Cost: 16 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.118 million

The horror enthusiasts will be at movie theatres this weekend.  Just not in the same room as this.

STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS

Cost: 15 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.155 million

Still hanging on.  A nice, really cheap filler.

My Cineplex

            The foundation is for the weekend is easy: Two Cloverfields & a Deadpool.  Where the weekend got tricky was what I did with the remaining 223 Bucks.  For the longest time, I had another Deadpool & a bunch of random picks to max out the 223.  But, in my research, I found a nice comp for The Perfect Match in Baggage Claim, which made about $4500/theatre two & a half years ago.  Using that, TPM had a good chance for the Bonus AND I could max out on it.  Therefore, here’s my lineup:

10 CLOVERFIELD LANE x2, DEADPOOL, THE PERFECT MATCH x5

Total Cost: 998 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonus: $96.9 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!