Fantasy Box Office Recap - January 8-10

            Everyone likes a surprise every once in a while.  For instance, no one won Powerball Saturday despite having, I believe, at least half of all combinations covered.  The Pittsburgh Steelers benefited from two Cincinnati Bengal personal fouls with 18 seconds left, giving the Steelers a winning chip shot field goal.  Then there’s what’s happened in the box office the past month.

            First, you had STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (TFA) shatter almost every box office record in existence three weeks ago.  Two weeks ago, DADDY’S HOME had a weekend no one could fathom, not even yours truly who selected 5 screens of it on the way to the Perfect Cineplex in the Fantasy Movie League.  Then there’s this weekend where there were four surprises, each of an increasing level of surprise.

            This shouldn’t be treated as a surprise but THE FOREST did better than most projections, including mine.  And that’s simply because of box office history.  The first horror flick of the year, no matter the quality, does well, sometimes very well.  The PG-13 rated THE FOREST was able to case a wide enough net to nab almost $12.75 million this weekend but will quickly fade into oblivion over the next few weeks.

            Quentin Tarantino’s THE HATEFUL EIGHT should teach studios a lesson: no more format-specific limited releases.  TH8 was the third such release of 2015 to do this after the one week, IMAX-only runs of EVEREST & THE WALK in September, with each release doing worse than the one before it.  Don’t let the #BlueLivesMatter movement fool you: TH8 dropped 59% to a $6.4 million weekend despite adding over 450 screens is because the marketing made it appear that you either see it in 70mm or not at all.

            I was one of those interested observers of TFA’s daily box office take during the week.  I felt there was a simple explanation: kids went back to school & the adults went back to work.  They would return for the weekend and would set another record, I thought.  Wrong.  The fourth weekend record is still AVATAR’s but its take is still an impressive $41.35 million.  Add the $33 million from China on opening day, TFA will soon solidify its place as the third highest grossing movie of all time worldwide as its reign at the top of the American box office will end after this weekend.

            Then there’s THE REVENANT.  I wish there was a site that compiled the box office projections of experts & wannabe experts like me.  I saw a few projections for the weekend and I had the highest projection for THE REVENANT.  And I was $10 million low with its $38 million wide debut.  Its performance this weekend shows that adults do in fact go to the movies, just not in droves like those younger than me.

            The rest performed within about a million of what I projected.  DADDY’S HOME’s SISTERS’ performance still astounds me but the latter is a welcome surprise.  For all intents & purposes, ALVIN is done box office wise along with most of the awards possibilities of JOY & CONCUSSION.  POINT BREAK finally tanked.  MOCKINGJAY PART 2 is going to fall short of $300 million in the end.

            It’s awards season but it’s also lull season folks.  Buckle up.  The next few months are going to be rough.

FML Recap

            Seeing as I missed SW & TR by $10 million each, I obviously chose the former as my foundation, losing about 200 bucks in the process.  Luckily, I took a chance on THE FOREST possibly winning the bonus, which it did with ease.  THE BIG SHORT underperformed but didn’t do as horrible as other movies (3^rd best value).  Still, my lineup lost me over $45 million on the perfect lineup, dropping me to 8^th in the Main League & 3^rd in The View League.  The Main League is a three horse race but there’s still plenty of weeks to catch up in The View League.

My Line-Up : STAR WARS x1, THE FOREST x2, THE BIG SHORT x5

Gross w/ Bonus: $102,708,652

Perfect Lineup: THE REVENANT x1, THE FOREST x7

Gross w/ Bonus: $148,015,072

January 8-10 Box Office Actuals:

1. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS                    $42,353,785 (-53.1%) [$812,734,828]

2. THE REVENANT                                                         $39,826,840 (NEW WIDE) [$41,383,741]

3. DADDY’S HOME                                                         $15,015,465 (-48.6%) [$116,329,041]

4. THE FOREST *FML Bonus Winner*                       $12,741,176 (NEW) [$12,741,176]

5. SISTERS                                                                          $7,189,455 (-43.7%) [$74,899,400]

6. THE HATEFUL EIGHT                                                  $6,402,187 (-59.2%) [$41,525,007]

7. THE BIG SHORT                                                            $6,174,503 (-31.9%) [$42,724,340]

8. ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS ROAD CHIP            $5,703,675 (-52.8%) [$75,812,014]

9. JOY                                                                                   $4,476,246 (-56.2%) [$46,531,854]

10. CONCUSSION                                                               $3,029,367 (-61.4%) [$30,947,645]