Friday, January 29, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: January 29-31
I have decided in an effort to minimize my workload when writing, I will write a sentence or three about each movie available to choose in Fantasy Movie League. This way, I can be fresh to write important stuff, like the new KUNG FU PANDA movie this week. I hope you like the new format.
KUNG FU PANDA 3
Cost: 785 FML Bucks
Estimate: $52.65 million
As a huge fan of the series so far, I’m tempted to go really, really high on this one, especially with the success of the first one. But the second one, even with a holiday weekend & 3D, grossed less in five days than what the first did in three. Add to all of that the fact that it’s January & kids are in school, it won’t sniff the original’s gross. But after a weekend of being stuck inside because of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic (and variations of this question can be asked about all the movies this weekend) how much do parents want kids out of the house? If it rockets to near $54 million or higher, Po wins the Bonus
FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK
Cost: 214 FML Bucks
Estimate: $10.75 million
Another year, another Marlon Wayans dance on the spoof movie grave. His target this time: FIFTY SHADES OF GREY. His last original spoof movie (A HAUNTED HOUSE) made over $18 million opening weekend three Januarys ago. The sequel released the following April opened to half of that. While a nice portion of Wayans’ audience is probably horror fans, the percentage who are fans of FIFTY SHADES has to be smaller, resulting in a smaller opening gross. Ceiling is $13 million & has little to no chance of winning the Bonus.
Cost: 167 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9.605 million
It’s still Awards Season so I’m seeing a smallish drop of 40%. I’m just wondering who the audience is left to see this. But based on the daily grosses, those people are out there. It could easily pass $10 million, especially if Leo wins SAG Saturday night. But, it will never make enough to win the Bonus.
THE FINEST HOURS
Cost: 157 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9.35 million
The reviews are mixed and so will the box office receipts. Needs at least $10.5 million to be in contention for the Bonus. Not happening.
STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS
Cost: 135 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9.15 million
Will this weekend be the last weekend this is a major player in FML? Yes, but might this be the week where the movie’s whole weekend wins the Bonus? Entirely possible with my 35% drop estimate. Anything over that and SW7 plummets in value.
Cost: 95 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6.111 million
A 45% drop may be soft for the sophomoric comedy in its sophomore weekend. But this very close to the movie’s ceiling ($6.25 million) and the ceiling is the only way it has a chance at the Bonus.
RIDE ALONG 2
Cost: 92 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6.23 million
A 50% drop sounds reasonable considering the weather issues from last week, the slightly smaller than I expected drop in # of theatres (lost 782) and the competition. Only has value if it wins the Bonus, which I have it in a tight race with SW7.
Cost: 88 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.85 million
Traditional horror movie 2nd weekend expectations plus the thawed blizzard effect equals a 55% drop. And that might be generous. No chance for the Bonus.
Cost: 87 FML Bucks
Speaking of no chance of getting the Bonus…
THE 5TH WAVE
Cost: 81 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.178 million
The movie’s star told folks where the blizzard hit to stay home & go this weekend. But how many will remember that this movie exists? I say half as many that saw the movie last weekend but not enough for serious Bonus contention.
Cost: 46 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.717 million
The movie’s age (6th weekend) plus its theatre count decrease (1000+ drop) make it nothing more than KFP3 filler.
NORM OF THE NORTH
Cost: 36 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.723 million
Non-factor/theatre filler #1. Nothing more to see here.
JANE’S GOT A GUN
Cost: 34 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.573 million
Troubled production plus little marketing plus moderate release equals non-factor/theatre filler #2.
THE BIG SHORT
Cost: 33 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.747 million
A Best Picture nominee that lost less than 400 theatres so the drop could be anywhere. I’m thinking a 45% drop but not a Bonus contender, only a screen filler.
Cost: 22 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.032 million
See THE BIG SHORT only with a 40% drop.
I have three movies fighting for the Best Performer Bonus. KUNG FU PANDA 3 is too expense to take that risk. As for the choice between STAR WARS 7 and RIDE ALONG 2…I couldn’t choose. I can do three of one & four of the other with a triple digit filler as the eight screen. So my choice came down to which of the following has the bigger upside: FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK or THE REVENANT? Based upon the target audience potential & the fact that it’s a new release, I chose the former. Filling out the final seven screens with the two I have in the Bonus race, I maximized my lineup to become:
FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK, STAR WARS x3, RIDE ALONG 2 x4
Total Cost: 987 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonuses: $71.114 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!