Fantasy Box Office: February 5-7

KUNG FU PANDA 3

Cost: 433 FML Bucks

Estimate: $25.595 million

After a disappointing opening weekend, this excellent (review coming soon) threequel looks to rebound with the lack of real new competition.  It may be Super Bowl weekend but the least hindered movie of the weekend should be the one for kids.  Should win the Bonus in a runaway.

HAIL, CAESAR!

Cost: 286 FML Bucks

Estimate: $14 million

The Coen Brothers are known for their quality films (even if this isn’t one of them, review coming later) but almost never light up the box office.  With the post-WWII Hollywood as the backdrop of this star-studded film, this one won’t either.  A complete non-factor.

PRIDE AND PREJUDICE AND ZOMBIE

Cost: 240 FML Bucks

Estimate: $12.7 million

Wild card #1.  Based on a popular book, this horror-romance-comedy appears to have been released about 3 years too late.  If this hits $14.5 million, it could become a major Bonus factor.

THE REVENANT

Cost: 201 FML Bucks

Estimate: $8.945 million

Remember two weeks ago when the Mid Atlantic was snowed in?  Box office receipts were down almost across the board.  After the melting, people went to the movies again.  Last week’s numbers were inflated for all the non-opening movies.  I expect a huge drop here but even if it doesn’t plummet, it still won’t compete for the Bonus.

THE CHOICE

Cost: 181 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.35 million

Wild Card #2.  Do the ladies still love Nicholas Sparks?  Maybe if released next weekend (Valentine’s Day) instead of this weekend, it nabs the Bonus.  Still a competitor but will fall short.

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Cost: 168 FML Bucks

Estimate: $6.67 million

Post-blizzard drop plus age plus theatre drop means…STAY AWAY!

THE FINEST HOURS

Cost: 114 FML Bucks

Estimate: $5.66 million

A well-received true story should have a decent hold.  The best mid-range option.

RIDE ALONG 2

Cost: 99 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.63 million

Major disappointment all around here.  A bad movie with bad word of mouth with another theatre count drop.  This should plummet, with or without the post-blizzard deflation.

DIRTY GRANDPA

Cost: 89 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.416 million

Boosted by the thaw last week, this bad comedy is fall to where it belongs: the far end of the Cineplex.

THE BOY

Cost: 88 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.02 million

Will act like a horror movie on its 3^rd weekend, which coincidentally THE BOY is.

THE 5^TH WAVE

Cost: 85 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.214 million

Mediocre YA adaptation will fade into nothing beginning this weekend.

13 HOURS

Cost: 73 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.137 million

FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK

Cost: 53 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.36 million

Poor reviews? Check.  Bad CinemaScore?  Check.  Disasterous 2^nd weekend hold?  Pending.

THE BIG SHORT

Cost: 52 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.991 million

Last week’s surprise Bonus winner lost less than 200 screens this week.  But like many movies this week, the post-winter storm drop will make it worthless this week.

DADDY’S HOME

Cost: 36 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.834 million

Sure, it’s an old movie and it’s losing 700 screens.  But as the cheapest option, it’s worth taking to fill up screens.  Possible Bonus contender.

My Cineplex

            I have zero confidence in the new releases, especially after seeing one of them Thursday night.  While the optimum lineup for my predictions involves taking THE CHOICE twice, I eliminated it from consideration.  With KFP3 as a no brainer pick, my Cineplex this week is…

KUNG FU PANDA 3, THE FINEST HOURS x4, DADDY’S HOME x3

Total Cost: 997 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonus: $55.731 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!