Friday, February 19, 2016

Fantasy Box Office: February 19-21

DEADPOOL
Cost: 821 FML Bucks
Estimate: $68.85 million
A historic weekend usually means a meteoric drop.  Any drop lower than 55% should be considered a victory.  It is my belief that none of the over-100 FML Bucks will win the bonus so using DEADPOOL as your foundationthis weekend is the right play.

RISEN
Cost: 128 FML Bucks
Estimate: $11 million
The first of four (FOUR?!?!) Christian-centric movies in the next two months.  This is the historical drama of the bunch.  I’m a little more optimistic than most of the experts and even then, it’s still a half million short of consideration.

KUNG FU PANDA 3
Cost: 126 FML Bucks
Estimate: $10.9 million
The fourth weekend of the best movie in theatres right now. 

RACE
Cost: 103 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9.8 million
This is the big wild card of the weekend.  A Jesse Owens biopic during Black History month should be a slam dunk but that’s only true if it wins the Bonus.  And I think it comes up just short in a crowded field.

THE WITCH
Cost: 90 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6 million
Low budget horror in 1800 theatres.  No chance.

HOW TO BE SINGLE
Cost: 88 FML Bucks
Estimate: $8 million
The single ladies didn’t come out last weekend and those that did, didn’t really care for this.  Nothing makes me think they show up this weekend.

ZOOLANDER 2
Cost: 62 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.536 million
Take what I said about HTBS & change “single ladies” to “thirty- & fourty-somethings.”

THE REVENANT
Cost: 42 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.5 million
Sixth weekend in wide release of one of the Best Picture frontrunners.  There’s still an audience for the movie but I don’t think it’s big enough.

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
Cost: 37 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.695 million
It’s the weekend after Valentine’s Day and I have STAR WARS winning the Bonus.  It’s still in most theatres and people will still show up.

HAIL, CAESAR!
Cost: 31 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.878 million
The diehard Coen Brothers fans haven’t shown up and probably won’t now.

THE CHOICE
Cost: 27 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.088 million
Valentine’s Day is over and so might be the run of Nicholas Sparks at the box office.

RIDE ALONG 2
Cost: 24 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.229 million
This terrible, comedic sequel just keeps chugging along.  Will make decent money for the cost again, just not enough for the Bonus.

THE BOY
Cost: 16 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.244 million
Not the newest horror flick in town.  Just ignore & move on.

THE FINEST HOURS
Cost: 13 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.222 million
Change “single ladies” to “senior citizens” in HTBS, only this time it’s a shame.

Busco Novio Para Mi Mujer
Cost: 13 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1 million
Ummm…  No comment.

My Cineplex
            As badly as I want to take RACE, to be worth it, it MUST win the Bonus.  But the race for the Bonus is too tight to take that risk.  Taking the four ‘safe’ pick screens (DEADPOOL & three STAR WARS) with filler on the other four, which leaves me with…


DEADPOOL x1, STAR WARS x3, HAIL, CAESAR! x1, THE FINEST HOURS x2, BNPMM x1
Total Cost: 1000 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $92.256 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

No comments:

Post a Comment