Monday, January 23, 2012

Almost Oscar Predictions

I do not own any of the posters above.  Used for entertainment purposes only.  Copyrights for each poster detailed below.
          Tuesday morning, all of Hollywood will be up at 5:30 in the morning for the most exciting day of the movie year : the Academy Award nominations.  Academy President Tom Sherak and Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence will beall dolled & caffeined up to announce all the major categories.  You, however, can get a heads up on everyone else and catch a glimpse of the nominees before the announcement below.  For various reasons, I haven’t seen many of the movies (they will be noted by an *) so these are predictions based upon previous awards results and not personal preference.  If they were, Bridesmaids wouldn’t be sniffing any category and The Help would…well you’ll find out later this week.

Best Picture
1.       The Artist*
2.       The Descendents
3.       Hugo*
4.       Midnight in Paris*
5.       The Help
6.       Moneyball*
7.       The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8.       Bridesmaids
9.       War Horse*
10.   Drive*
According to the new Academy rules, there could be up to 10 nominees and at least five.  Most, including myself, believe there will be 7 or 8 nominees.  I’m thinking 8 will make the cut, with my top 6 as locks.  Dragon Tattoo is all but in and the 8th slot could go to any of the bottom three.

Best Director
                Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist*
                Alexander Payne, The Descendants
                Martin Scorsese, Hugo*
                Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris*
                Bennett Miller, Moneyball*
Three of these gentlemen (Hanazavicius, Payne & Scorsese) are locks, with Allen virtually assured his spot.  The coveted fifth spot can be claimed by as many six different men.  David Fincher is the most obvious choice, but I feel that the Academy doesn’t think as highly of him as cinephiles do.  If it isn’t Miller, then its Spielberg.

Best Actor
                George Clooney, The Descendants
                Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar*
                Jean Dujardin, The Artist*
                Michael Fassbender, Shame*
                Brad Pitt, Moneyball*
Three locks (Clooney, Dujardin & Pitt) then two huge questions.  First, did the Academy see the NC-17 rated Shame?  Second, does the Academy remember seeing the bomb that was J. Edgar?  I think yes to both, less so for DiCaprio.  If no for either, look for Gary Oldman to get some love.

Best Actress
                Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs*
                Viola Davis, The Help
                Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
                Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady*
                Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn*
Seven actresses, five spots.  Davis & Streep are in, Close & Williams are near-locks.  The fifth spot will go to Mara, or previous winners Tilda Swinton or Charlize Theron.  I don’t know how the Academy can reject the best acting performance all year though.

Best Supporting Actor
                Albert Brooks, Drive*
                Jonah Hill, Moneyball*
                Nick Nolte, Warrior*
                Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
                Christopher Plummer, Beginners*
Three locks here (Brooks, Hill, Plummer) and a near-lock overdue nod for Nolte.  Oswalt could easily be overtaken by Kenneth Branagh but I don’t believe so.

Best Supporting Actress
                Bernice Bejo, The Artist*
                Jessica Chastain, The Help
                Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
                Octavia Spencer, The Help
                Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants
If these aren’t the five, I will be shocked.

Best Original Screenplay
                The Artist*
                Midnight in Paris*
                A Separation*
Three locks (Artist, Brides & Midnight) and two fairly open spots.  50/50 is in because of the weak field.  A Separation will edge out Young Adult.

Best Adapted Screenplay
                The Descendants
                The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
                The Help
Four locks with Dragon Tattoo & Ides of March battling for the fifth spot.  Dragon Tattoo gets it.

Best Animated Feature
                The Adventures of TinTin*
                Cars 2*
                Puss in Boots*
                Winnie the Pooh*
Only 2 locks here (TinTin & Rango) with Arthur Christmas & Kung Fu Panda 2 waiting in the wings.

Best Cinematography
                Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist*
                Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
                Bob Richardson, Hugo*
                Emmanuel Lubezki, Tree of Life
                Janusz Kaminski, War Horse*

Best Editing
                The Artist*
                The Descendants
                The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
                Hugo *

Best Art Direction
                The Artist*
                Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2*
                Midnight in Paris*
                Tree of Life

Best Costume Design
                The Artist*
                Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2*
                The Help
                Tree of Life

Best Makeup
                The Artist*
                Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2*

Best Original Score
                The Artist*
                The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
                War Horse*

Best Original Song
                “The Living Proof”, The Help
                “Life’s a Happy Song”, The Muppets
                “Man or Muppet”, The Muppets
                “Pictures in My Head”, The Muppets

Best Visual Effects
                Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2*
                Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
                Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
                Tree of Life

Best Sound Editing
                Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2*
                Super 8*
                War Horse*

Best Sound Mixing
                The Artist*
                Super 8*
                War Horse*

The Artist is (c) of The Weinstein Company.  The Descendents is (c) of 20th Century Fox.  Hugo is (c) of Paramount Pictures.  Midnight in Paris is (c) of Sony Pictures Classics.  The Help is (c) of DreamWorks SKG.  Moneyball is (c) of Columbia Pictures.  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is (c) of Sony Pictures.  Bridesmaids is (c) of Universal Pictures.

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