Fantasy Box Office: January 29-31

            I have decided in an effort to minimize my workload when writing, I will write a sentence or three about each movie available to choose in Fantasy Movie League.  This way, I can be fresh to write important stuff, like the new KUNG FU PANDA movie this week.  I hope you like the new format.

KUNG FU PANDA 3

Cost: 785 FML Bucks

Estimate: $52.65 million

As a huge fan of the series so far, I’m tempted to go really, really high on this one, especially with the success of the first one.  But the second one, even with a holiday weekend & 3D, grossed less in five days than what the first did in three.  Add to all of that the fact that it’s January & kids are in school, it won’t sniff the original’s gross.  But after a weekend of being stuck inside because of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic (and variations of this question can be asked about all the movies this weekend) how much do parents want kids out of the house?  If it rockets to near $54 million or higher, Po wins the Bonus

FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK

Cost: 214 FML Bucks

Estimate: $10.75 million

Another year, another Marlon Wayans dance on the spoof movie grave.  His target this time: FIFTY SHADES OF GREY.  His last original spoof movie (A HAUNTED HOUSE) made over $18 million opening weekend three Januarys ago.  The sequel released the following April opened to half of that.  While a nice portion of Wayans’ audience is probably horror fans, the percentage who are fans of FIFTY SHADES has to be smaller, resulting in a smaller opening gross.  Ceiling is $13 million & has little to no chance of winning the Bonus.

THE REVENANT

Cost: 167 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.605 million

It’s still Awards Season so I’m seeing a smallish drop of 40%.  I’m just wondering who the audience is left to see this.  But based on the daily grosses, those people are out there.  It could easily pass $10 million, especially if Leo wins SAG Saturday night.  But, it will never make enough to win the Bonus.

THE FINEST HOURS

Cost: 157 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.35 million

The reviews are mixed and so will the box office receipts.  Needs at least $10.5 million to be in contention for the Bonus.  Not happening.

STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS

Cost: 135 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.15 million

Will this weekend be the last weekend this is a major player in FML?  Yes, but might this be the week where the movie’s whole weekend wins the Bonus?  Entirely possible with my 35% drop estimate.  Anything over that and SW7 plummets in value.

DIRTY GRANDPA

Cost: 95 FML Bucks

Estimate: $6.111 million

A 45% drop may be soft for the sophomoric comedy in its sophomore weekend.  But this very close to the movie’s ceiling ($6.25 million) and the ceiling is the only way it has a chance at the Bonus.

RIDE ALONG 2

Cost: 92 FML Bucks

Estimate: $6.23 million

A 50% drop sounds reasonable considering the weather issues from last week, the slightly smaller than I expected drop in # of theatres (lost 782) and the competition.  Only has value if it wins the Bonus, which I have it in a tight race with SW7.

THE BOY

Cost: 88 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.85 million

Traditional horror movie 2^nd weekend expectations plus the thawed blizzard effect equals a 55% drop.  And that might be generous.  No chance for the Bonus.

13 HOURS

Cost: 87 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.515

Speaking of no chance of getting the Bonus…

THE 5^TH WAVE

Cost: 81 FML Bucks

Estimate: $5.178 million

The movie’s star told folks where the blizzard hit to stay home & go this weekend.  But how many will remember that this movie exists?  I say half as many that saw the movie last weekend but not enough for serious Bonus contention.

DADDY’S HOME

Cost: 46 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.717 million

The movie’s age (6^th weekend) plus its theatre count decrease (1000+ drop) make it nothing more than KFP3 filler.

NORM OF THE NORTH

Cost: 36 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.723 million

Non-factor/theatre filler #1.  Nothing more to see here.

JANE’S GOT A GUN

Cost: 34 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.573 million

Troubled production plus little marketing plus moderate release equals non-factor/theatre filler #2.

THE BIG SHORT

Cost: 33 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.747 million

A Best Picture nominee that lost less than 400 theatres so the drop could be anywhere.  I’m thinking a 45% drop but not a Bonus contender, only a screen filler.

BROOKLYN

Cost: 22 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.032 million

See THE BIG SHORT only with a 40% drop.

My Cineplex

            I have three movies fighting for the Best Performer Bonus.  KUNG FU PANDA 3 is too expense to take that risk.  As for the choice between STAR WARS 7 and RIDE ALONG 2…I couldn’t choose.  I can do three of one & four of the other with a triple digit filler as the eight screen.  So my choice came down to which of the following has the bigger upside: FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK or THE REVENANT?  Based upon the target audience potential & the fact that it’s a new release, I chose the former.  Filling out the final seven screens with the two I have in the Bonus race, I maximized my lineup to become:

FIFTY SHADES OF BLACK, STAR WARS x3, RIDE ALONG 2 x4

Total Cost: 987 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonuses: $71.114 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

Review: Dirty Grandpa

I do not own the above image.  Copyright Lionsgate Films.  All Rights Reserved.

            Another January, another gross out comedy involving a soon-to-be married man.  This time, Jason Kelly (Efron) is a corporate lawyer in Atlanta about to marry Meredith (Hough), the daughter of a powerful lawyer.  A week before the wedding, Jason’s grandmother passes away and has to transport his grieving grandfather Dick (De Niro) to their summer condo in Boca Raton.  Dick has other plans.

            What you see in the commercials for DIRTY GRANDPA in mostly in the first 20-25 minutes.  What the marketing leaves out is the bare-bones, formula story revolving around Jason falling for Shadia (Deutch), a former classmate of his who is a hipster photographer/Manic Pixie Dream Girl.  Jason is continually foiled by Shadia’s dude-bro boyfriend & his goofy-looking henchman.  These two underdeveloped buffoons exist solely to be subjects of De Niro’s insults and to create the third act tension this formula requires only to completely disappear immediately after without explanation, showing just how important first-time credited writer John M. Phillips feels a competent story is to a comedy.  The other significant story is that of Jason’s fiancée’s almost constant surveillance of him and her total devotion to their wedding.  Such highlights from her include choosing tie colors during the funeral and calling 37 times in a morning to talk with the rabbi.  Hough’s shrill bride-to-be is not as infuriating & pathetic as other bridezillas as of late but this character needs to be retired.  These two battles drag down to almost unwatchable status.

            As little effort puts into his story, the three of the main actors try their best to keep the movie rolling & the audience entertained.  Zack Efron continues to show that there is something behind that pretty face & those abs.  He has the charisma & comedic timing that Adam Sandler would kill for.  I’ve seen Robert De Niro phone it in more times that should be legal.  But as the titular character, he appears to be having the time of his life.  You can see it in his eyes that De Niro cherishes the opportunity to say these vulgar insults & he never holds back.  But the runaway star of the movie is Aubrey Plaza as the young object of De Niro’s affection.  Imagine April Ludgate-Dwyer if she grew up watching teen sex comedies.  Plaza has that perfect, uninhibited comedic timing in a movie in desperate need of her talents.

            Make no mistake: I am not recommending you see this movie.  Director Dan Mazer (BORAT co-writer) doesn’t have nearly the talent to combine all these elements into a coherent movie.  Are there laughs?  Yes.  But most of the humor is in the form of an old man spewing vulgar insults at everyone and genuine laughs are few & far between.  There’s Jason Mantzoukas’ Pam, a tourist supply shop owner/drug dealer/DJ whose mere presence caused migraines.  Repeatedly he sweet talks his way out of being arrested by Mo Collins & Henry Zembrowski, two standard idiot local cops who don’t induce any positive emotions from the audience.  Danny Glover has one, two-minute scene that is supposed to add to the title character’s pressing need to live life to the fullest but it just comes off as a time filler   Plus, there is a gay black male character who does a tightrope walk with line between being an offensive stereotype and just a bad character.  And don’t get me started on the third act climaxes followed by an unearned sentimental moments that cause the proceedings to limp to the end credits.

            The actors are game but the writer & director are just way out of their league.  DIRTY GRANDPA is a three week rewrite away from being a very good movie instead of the uneven jumble we get here.

*1/2

Fantasy Box Office - January 22-24

No full article this week.  It's amazing what one changed plan does to one's week.

Box Office Top 15
1. The Revenant - $21.306 million
2. Ride Along 2 - $16.215 million
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $15.8 million
4. Dirty Grandpa - $12 million
5. The Boy - $11 million
6. The 5th Wave - 10.5 million
7. 13 Hours - $9.5 million *FML Bonus Winner*
8. Daddy's Home - $5.73 million
9. Norm of the North - $3.74 million
10. The Big Short - $3.18 million
11. The Forest - $2.69 million
12. Sisters - $2.575 million
13. Brooklyn - $1.97 million
14. The Hateful Eight - $1.784 million
15. Room - $1.15 million

My Cineplex: 13 Hours x6, Daddy's Home, Brooklyn
Cost: 994 FML Bucks
Projected Gross: $76.73 million

Fantasy Box Office - MLK Weekend

            As we continue into the doldrums of January, we have three types of movies that usually dominate theatres this time of year opening this weekend: low-budget animation, minority-centric comedy and recent phenomenon uber-patriotic action movie.

            The smallest of the releases is NORM OF THE NORTH, a Lionsgate animated flick about a displaced polar bear running around New York City featuring the voice talents of Rob Schneider & Heather Graham.  Usually, animated features released this time of year earn $6 million opening weekend then disappear after three weeks.  Two years ago, THE NUT JOB from Open Road earned $19+ million opening weekend on the way to a $121 million worldwide gross & a sequel in the works.  TNJ could be considered an anomaly since it was the first children’s movie in 9 weeks when released whereas NotN opens five weeks after the 4^th ALVIN movie and two weeks before the 3^rd KUNG FU PANDA.  I’m leaning closer to the traditional performance of an animated flick but with the poor performance of ALVIN, I’m wondering if parents want to try to get kids out of the house anyway they can.

            The widest new release of the weekend is RIDE ALONG 2, the sequel to the 2014 Kevin Hart-Ice Cube hit.  RA2 is being released on the same weekend as it predecessor, MLK weekend.  The PG-13 original made $41.5 million in three days & $48.5 million in four, which grossed higher that either of Hart’s two R-rated comedies from last year.  The sequel, also rated PG-13, is the first new comedy in 3 weeks and features an even more diverse cast than the last one with the addition of Ken Jeong in what appears to be a significant role.  I don’t expect a huge bump from the last one but I also don’t expect a collapse like other sequels to poorly-reviewed comedies due to Kevin Hart's star power.

            Finally, there’s the most controversial of the new releases, Michael Bay’s 13 HOURS.  Based on the 2012 Benghazi attacks, Bay’s movie features a minor star in John Krasinski and major explosions that have always populated his movies.  Knowing the politics surrounding Bay & the book this is based on, I could see a certain half of the political spectrum flocking to this just like they did two previous movies released around the same time.  Two years ago, LONE SURVIVOR opened wide with a surprising $37.85 million weekend on its way to a $154 million worldwide.  Last year, AMERICAN SNIPER’s wide debut exploded to an $89.2 million weekend, eventually becoming the highest grossing movie of 2014.  But how high will 13 HOURS go?  One thing the other two movies had were a big star (Wahlberg/Cooper) and a real-life hero (Marcus Luttrell/Chris Kyle).  13 HOURS has Jim from The Office & anonymous protagonists.  But will that matter to the Fox News crowd?

            As for the older releases, STAR WARS should finally fall from its #1 perch this week with a moderate drop.  With its numerous Oscar nominations, THE REVENANT should continue to grab attention from those looking for prestige movies.  With RIDE ALONG 2 poised to win the weekend, older comedies DADDY’S HOME, SISTERS & (to a lesser extent due to Oscar attention) THE BIG SHORT should have bigger drops that usual for their runs.  Speaking of Oscar attention, CAROL & SPOTLIGHT both expand, hoping to catch the eyes of awards watchers.

Top 15 Predictions (4-Day Weekend)

1. RIDE ALONG 2 - $53.5 million *FML Bonus Winner*

2. THE REVENANT -$35.84 million

3. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS - $29.48 million

4. 13 HOURS - $27.3 million

5. NORM OF THE NORTH - $11.25 million

6. DADDY’S HOME - $10.27 million

7. THE FOREST - $6.12 million

8. SISTERS - $4.745 million

9. THE BIG SHORT - $4.211 million

10. THE HATEFUL EIGHT - $3.96 million

11. ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS: ROAD CHIP - $3.92 million

12. JOY - $2.954 million

13. CAROL - $2.25 million

14. CONCUSSION - $1.8174 million

15. SPOTLIGHT - $1.5 million

Fantasy Movie League Lineup

            As for my lineup this week, everything came down to how much confidence I have in 13 HOURS.  In the end, it wasn’t enough.  Based upon my projections, using a two-screen foundation of RA2 & SW7 was the best use of FML dollars & screens while leaving enough of both to get a lot of Oscar bait filler of CAROL & SPOTLIGHT.  At least that was the plan until CAROL didn’t receive Best Picture & Best Director nominations.  I quickly scrambled by changing those two screens into a fifth SPOTLIGHT and, because of the amount of FML bucks left, JOY.  I just hope the Fox News crowd gets snowed in this weekend or I’ll kick myself for weeks for not going with my first instinct.  But with how little the weekend grosses will be, the penalty for won’t be too severe.

Lineup: RIDE ALONG 2, STAR WARS 7, JOY, SPOTLIGHT x5

Cost: 995 FML Bucks

Projected Gross: $95.43185 million

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

2015 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture is ranked in order of likelihood of being nominated.  The rest are alphabetical.

Best Picture (Eight will be nominated)

1. Spotlight

2. The Revenant

3. The Big Short

4. The Martian

5. Carol

6. Bridge of Spies

7. Mad Max Fury Road

8. Room

9. The Danish Girl

10. Brooklyn

11. Trumbo

12. Joy

13. Steve Jobs

14. Sicario

15. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

16. Creed

17. Straight Outta Compton

18. Inside Out

19. Creed

20. Beasts of No Nation

Best Director

Todd Haynes, CAROL

Alejandro Inarritu, THE REVENANT

Tom McCarthy, SPOTLIGHT

George Miller, MAD MAX FURY ROAD

Ridley Scott, THE MARTIAN

            Alternate: Adam McKay, THE BIG SHORT

            Dark Horse: Steven Spielberg, BRIDGE OF SPIES

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston, TRUMBO

Matt Damon, THE MARTIAN

Leonardo DiCaprio, THE REVENANT

Michael Fassbender, STEVE JOBS

Eddie Redmayne, THE DANISH GIRL

            Alternate: Johnny Depp, BLACK MASS

            Dark Horse: Michael B. Jordan, CREED

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, CAROL

Brie Larson, ROOM

Jennifer Lawrence, JOY

Saoirse Ronan, BROOKLYN

Alicia Vikander, THE DANISH GIRL

            Alternate: Charlotte Rampling, 45 YEARS

            Dark Horse: Charlize Theron, MAD MAX FURY ROAD

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, THE BIG SHORT

Mark Ruffalo, SPOTLIGHT

Mark Rylance, BRIDGE OF SPIES

Sylvester Stallone, CREED

Jacob Tremblay, ROOM

            Alternate: Idris Elba, BEASTS OF NO NATION

            Dark Horse: Paul Dano, LOVE & MERCY

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Rooney Mara, CAROL

Rachel McAdams, SPOTLIGHT

Alicia Vikander, EX MACHINA

Kate Winslet, STEVE JOBS

            Alternate: Helen Mirren, TRUMBO

            Dark Horse: Kristen Stewart, CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA

Best Adapted Screenplay

THE BIG SHORT

CAROL

THE MARTIAN

ROOM

STEVE JOBS

            Alternate: BROOKLYN

            Dark Horse: TRUMBO

Best Original Screenplay

BRIDGE OF SPIES

EX MACHINA

THE HATEFUL EIGHT

INSIDE OUT

SPOTLIGHT

            Alternate: SICARIO

            Dark Horse: JOY

Best Editing

THE MARTIAN

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE REVENANT

SICARIO

SPOTLIGHT

            Alternate: THE BIG SHORT

Best Cinematography

CAROL

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE MARTIAN

THE REVENANT

SICARIO

            Alternate: BRIDGE OF SPIES

Best Production Design

BROOKLYN

CAROL

THE DANISH GIRL

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE REVENANT

Best Sound Mixing

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE MARTIAN

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Best Sound Editing

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE REVENANT

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Best Costume Design

BROOKLYN

CAROL

THE DANISH GIRL

CINDERELLA

THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Best Original Score

CAROL

THE HATEFUL EIGHT

INSIDE OUT

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Best Animated Feature

ANOMALISA

INSIDE OUT

MINIONS

SHAUN THE SHEEP

Best Visual Effects

JURASSIC WORLD

MAD MAX FURY ROAD

THE MARTIAN

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

THE REVENANT

Best Makeup & Hair

CAROL

THE DANISH GIRL

THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Best Original Song

…Does it really matter?  That overplayed “See You Again” from FURIOUS 7 is going to win.

Fantasy Box Office Recap - January 8-10

            Everyone likes a surprise every once in a while.  For instance, no one won Powerball Saturday despite having, I believe, at least half of all combinations covered.  The Pittsburgh Steelers benefited from two Cincinnati Bengal personal fouls with 18 seconds left, giving the Steelers a winning chip shot field goal.  Then there’s what’s happened in the box office the past month.

            First, you had STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (TFA) shatter almost every box office record in existence three weeks ago.  Two weeks ago, DADDY’S HOME had a weekend no one could fathom, not even yours truly who selected 5 screens of it on the way to the Perfect Cineplex in the Fantasy Movie League.  Then there’s this weekend where there were four surprises, each of an increasing level of surprise.

            This shouldn’t be treated as a surprise but THE FOREST did better than most projections, including mine.  And that’s simply because of box office history.  The first horror flick of the year, no matter the quality, does well, sometimes very well.  The PG-13 rated THE FOREST was able to case a wide enough net to nab almost $12.75 million this weekend but will quickly fade into oblivion over the next few weeks.

            Quentin Tarantino’s THE HATEFUL EIGHT should teach studios a lesson: no more format-specific limited releases.  TH8 was the third such release of 2015 to do this after the one week, IMAX-only runs of EVEREST & THE WALK in September, with each release doing worse than the one before it.  Don’t let the #BlueLivesMatter movement fool you: TH8 dropped 59% to a $6.4 million weekend despite adding over 450 screens is because the marketing made it appear that you either see it in 70mm or not at all.

            I was one of those interested observers of TFA’s daily box office take during the week.  I felt there was a simple explanation: kids went back to school & the adults went back to work.  They would return for the weekend and would set another record, I thought.  Wrong.  The fourth weekend record is still AVATAR’s but its take is still an impressive $41.35 million.  Add the $33 million from China on opening day, TFA will soon solidify its place as the third highest grossing movie of all time worldwide as its reign at the top of the American box office will end after this weekend.

            Then there’s THE REVENANT.  I wish there was a site that compiled the box office projections of experts & wannabe experts like me.  I saw a few projections for the weekend and I had the highest projection for THE REVENANT.  And I was $10 million low with its $38 million wide debut.  Its performance this weekend shows that adults do in fact go to the movies, just not in droves like those younger than me.

            The rest performed within about a million of what I projected.  DADDY’S HOME’s SISTERS’ performance still astounds me but the latter is a welcome surprise.  For all intents & purposes, ALVIN is done box office wise along with most of the awards possibilities of JOY & CONCUSSION.  POINT BREAK finally tanked.  MOCKINGJAY PART 2 is going to fall short of $300 million in the end.

            It’s awards season but it’s also lull season folks.  Buckle up.  The next few months are going to be rough.

FML Recap

            Seeing as I missed SW & TR by $10 million each, I obviously chose the former as my foundation, losing about 200 bucks in the process.  Luckily, I took a chance on THE FOREST possibly winning the bonus, which it did with ease.  THE BIG SHORT underperformed but didn’t do as horrible as other movies (3^rd best value).  Still, my lineup lost me over $45 million on the perfect lineup, dropping me to 8^th in the Main League & 3^rd in The View League.  The Main League is a three horse race but there’s still plenty of weeks to catch up in The View League.

My Line-Up : STAR WARS x1, THE FOREST x2, THE BIG SHORT x5

Gross w/ Bonus: $102,708,652

Perfect Lineup: THE REVENANT x1, THE FOREST x7

Gross w/ Bonus: $148,015,072

January 8-10 Box Office Actuals:

1. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS                    $42,353,785 (-53.1%) [$812,734,828]

2. THE REVENANT                                                         $39,826,840 (NEW WIDE) [$41,383,741]

3. DADDY’S HOME                                                         $15,015,465 (-48.6%) [$116,329,041]

4. THE FOREST *FML Bonus Winner*                       $12,741,176 (NEW) [$12,741,176]

5. SISTERS                                                                          $7,189,455 (-43.7%) [$74,899,400]

6. THE HATEFUL EIGHT                                                  $6,402,187 (-59.2%) [$41,525,007]

7. THE BIG SHORT                                                            $6,174,503 (-31.9%) [$42,724,340]

8. ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS ROAD CHIP            $5,703,675 (-52.8%) [$75,812,014]

9. JOY                                                                                   $4,476,246 (-56.2%) [$46,531,854]

10. CONCUSSION                                                               $3,029,367 (-61.4%) [$30,947,645]

Fantasy Box Office: January 8-10

            As a New Year’s Resolution this year, I’ve decided it’s now or never: I get serious about film writing or I get out.  So, one weekly item that I plan on doing is a little twist on box office predictions: My Fantasy Movie League picks.  Fantasy Movie League (FML) is a really fun game where you try to select the best 8 screen combination with a limited budget.  For complete rules & other information, go to fantasymovieleague.com/howtoplay.  They can explain the game easier than I ever could.

            As for this week’s box office, there will be a clear winner: THE MASKED SAINT.  But seriously, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS (TFA) will win the weekend for the fourth straight weekend without question.  The questions for the weekend are 1) How much will it hold from a holiday weekend and 2) Will it break the 4^th weekend record currently held by AVATAR from exactly 6 years ago?  To figure out the first question, I looked at the fourth weekend drops ten highest grossing live-action movies of 2015 not named TFA.  After removing SPECTRE’s 14.3% drop as an outlier, the average of the remaining 9 is 37.59%.  I then reasoned that with the type of movie TFA is (sequel to a 20+ year old movie) plus with the lack of competition in this post-holiday weekend, I found it reasonable to believe that the fall would be between that percentage & the fourth weekend fall for another 2015 sequel to a 20+ year old movie, JURASSIC WORLD (46.8%).

            The big wide release of the weekend is a big awards season film with a big star, THE REVENANT starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  The first movie that came to mind as similar in nature (post-Picture & Director winning film moving from limited-to-wide release) was 2011’s ZERO DARK THIRTY and its $24.3 million opening weekend gross.  Leo’s star-power will be a little bigger of a factor than ZDT’s controversy but the subject matter might negate that.  Based solely on inflation, THE REVENANT will earn slightly more than ZDT did 4 years ago.

            The other wide release is THE FOREST, a PG-13 horror flick that takes place in the suicide forest of Japan.  Being the first non-holiday-themed horror flick since PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DEMENSION in mid-October, it should dominate the weekend.  But with TFA still out there, the movie’s tame PG-13 rating, the smallish studio backing it & the decline of the success of the first horror flick of the calendar year as of late, THE FOREST appears to be a three-weekends-and-out kind of movie.

Top 10 Predictions:

1. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS – $51.257 million (-43.2%) *New 4^th weekend record*

2. THE REVENANT - $27.5 million (NEW)

3. DADDY’S HOME $17.08 million (-41.5%)

4. THE FOREST - $9.1 million (NEW)

5. THE HATEFUL EIGHT - $8.749 million (-44.29%)

6. THE BIG SHORT - $7.248 million (-20%)

7. ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS: ROAD CHIP - $6.52 million (-46%)

8. SISTERS - $6.38 million (-50%)

9. JOY - $5.41 (-47%)

10. CONCUSSION $3.923 million (-50%)

Fantasy Movie League Prediction: 

            It being the weekend after a holiday weekend, drops will be larger than normal.  But you see an exception there in THE BIG SHORT.  With the 950 theatre expansion combined with the great word of mouth plus it is awards season, I see it being the winner of the $2 million bonus for best performer on FML.  As my cineplex’s foundation, TFAx1 barely beats out TH8x5 as a value (10.63 bpm vs. 10.74 bpm).  With 7 screens & 455 bucks remaining, I could max out on THE BIG SHORT without a problem.  But I’d leave 41 bucks just sitting out there and have a movie with a historical upside in THE FOREST.  I’ll take 2 of them then fill out the rest with my projected best performer THE BIG SHORT.  With the box office projected to be so low this weekend, if taking THE FOREST is a mistake, I won’t be punished that harshly.

My Cineplex: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS x1, THE FOREST x2, THE BIG SHORT x5

FML Bucks Spent: 1000

Projected Gross w/ Bonus: $115.6969 million

Good luck and buy a winning ticket!