Friday, April 15, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: April 15-17
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Cost: 748 FML Bucks
Estimate: $78.7 million
Another new live-action remake of a classic Disney animated film. This time, we get Jon Favreau’s take on the Rudland Kipling novel with CGI everything except Mowgli. The 94% on the Tomatometer (at writing) might help this hit $80 million plus but I’ll stay a little cautious. Will win the Bonus if the next movie underperforms.
BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT
Cost: 202 FML Bucks
Estimate: $24.35 million
A threequel to one of the most successful African-American franchises. More importantly, this is the first minority-centric, non-spoof comedy in almost three months. Look for this to possibly dominate the Bonus race.
Cost: 143 FML Bucks
Estimate: $10.6137 million
A shocking victory in overall box office & in the FML Bonus contest. Can McCarthy repeat? After a ‘C+’ Cinemascore, not a chance.
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE
Cost: 116 FML Bucks
Estimate: $11.6815 million
After a shocking loss last week & three weeks of underperforming, BvS should fall a normal amount this weekend. Right? I mean, not enough to win the Bonus but enough to look respectable now. Right?!
Cost: 93 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9.324 million
Now it it’s 7th weekend, this overachieving Disney animated film finally has competition in THE JUNGLE BOOK. Regardless, should have a respectable, “might be playable” weekend.
Cost: 90 FML Bucks
Estimate: $7 million
A poorly reviewed, under-marketed action movie with Costner & Reynolds. Avoid at all costs.
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Cost: 39 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.368 million
This crowd-pleasing but critically reviled (including by yours truly) rom-com sequel continues to do well relative to its budget. Another sub-50% drop this weekend & in contention as a screen filler.
MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN
Cost: 31 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.059 million
The Christian-themed movie that won’t go away. This is a very solid play as a screen filler.
Cost: 27 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.043 million
Tainted as a failure by both box office prognosticators & FML’ers, stay away from this.
GOD’S NOT DEAD 2
Cost: 24 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.027 million
Mean-spirited religious movie that got rejected this time around. FML’ers should reject this too.
THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT
Cost: 21 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.1108 million
About 50% behind the pace of the first movie two years ago. Too expensive for consideration this week.
EYE IN THE SKY
Cost: 20 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.8824 million
Doing fairly well for a movie I’ve heard very little about. Still not worth playing.
10 CLOVERFIELD LANE
Cost: 20 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.888 million
Can this become the first movie to be part of the Perfect Cineplex for the fourth straight weekend? Probably too expensive this week. Too bad.
Cost: 13 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.355 million
This is the last weekend this will torture me with its presence. Good riddance!
HELLO, MY NAME IS DORIS
Cost: 11 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.966 million
A decent little film gets one more weekend in the spotlight. Not worth playing though.
One projection that I have above most other players is BARBERSHOP hitting well over $21 million. Again, the target audience has been waiting for a movie like this. After maxing out on that, there’s about 190 bucks to divide among four screens, to be filled by one mid-range option & three low-end screens, which leads me to a lineup of:
BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT x4, BATMAN V SUPERMAN, MIRACLE FROM HEAVEN x2, DEADPOOL
Total Cost: 999 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $124.554 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!