Thursday, April 21, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: April 22-24
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Cost: 804 FML Bucks
Estimate: $56.728 million
Where does a movie go after a $102+ million opening weekend with a 90%+ on RT & an ‘A’ Cinemascore? Back to the top of the box office. The question is how high it will go. I’m going the conservative route with my prediction but a $60 million weekend won’t surprise me.
THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR
Cost: 324 FML Bucks
Estimate: $25.5 million
A Kristin Stewart-less pre-sequel to the 2012 Stewart hit. With the interest in this movie low & the Tomatometer even lower, how much can the starpower of Theron/Hemsworth/Blunt/Chastain take in at the cinema this week? I think I’m on the high side, but you never know.
BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT
Cost: 134 FML Bucks
Estimate: $10.1 million
A big disappointment for those of us who went all out with it last weekend. The rule of thumb with well-received minority-centric movie falls as close to 50% as possible. But can this threequel drop just 45% & win the Bonus? Maybe.
Cost: 67 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.8852 million
Competition from TJB finally knocked this animated film down a few pegs but still had a respectable weekend and should have another one this weekend.
Cost: 64 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.4811 million
As expected, this fell 57%+ last weekend. This is a real wild card this weekend. A sub-50% drop might make this a playable option. But I doubt it.
ELVIS & NIXON
Cost: 62 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.6 million
WARNING: ONLY IN 379 THEATRES! AVOID AT ALL COSTS!!!
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE
Cost: 48 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.514 million
This movie is just going through the motions until it disappears from theatres with its capes between its legs.
Cost: 35 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.3068 million
A complete flop that isn’t worth even speaking its title, let alone consider playing in this game. Just keep reading.
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Cost: 32 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.69416 million
A moderately successful mom-com (a comedy only your mother could love) that has been on my radar just about every week thus far. This week is slightly different. Not chance to play this week.
MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN
Cost: 13 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.93 million
Finally fell like a regular movie last weekend. This weekend may be its last stand but not worth it.
EYE IN THE SKY
Cost: 12 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.777 million
One last week for Alan Rickman to be in the spotlight but not in your lineup. Sad…
GOD’S NOT DEAD 2
Cost: 11 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.7508 million
Can this hateful movie just go away already?!
Cost: 10 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.05 million
A Mexican film that is showing up in 350ish theatres this weekend. Is its price enough to coax me & you into playing it? Maybe…
Cost: 10 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.731 million
Don Cheadle’s directorial debut is this Miles Davis biopic that expands enough to be in the game this week. Just not enough to be useful in the game.
THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT
Cost: 9 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.6165 million
The third part of a YA series that has made half the money as the first one did two years ago. Not worth shifting your lineup to have one.
I am going against my own figures a little this week. I should go with HUNTSMAN but I have little to no confidence in my own calculations. Maybe I should change my method to my madness. Anyhoo, my “safe” play this weekend:
THE JUNGLE BOOK, BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT, COMPADRES x6
Total Cost: 998 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $85.15 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!