Friday, April 29, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: April 29 - May 1
THE JUNGLE BOOK
Cost: 804 FML Bucks
Estimate: $35.077 million
After another huge weekend, TJB is poised to win its third weekend in a row before a Civil War hits theatres. But how big will it be? I can't see a non-animated Disney movie to hold over 60%, even without any new competition.
Cost: 346 FML Bucks
Estimate: $17.15 million
A hilarious comedy from the stars/creators of Key & Peele that will sure to test just how powerful television stars can be on the silver screen. It is 'R'-rated and unabashedly so. Could go anywhere in the teens or even low 20s.
Cost: 309 FML Bucks
Estimate: $12.31 million
Another Garry Marshall "Day" movie for everyone to ignore again. That cast could open any other movie in the universe. But that trailer is as bad as the price is high.
THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR
Cost: 172 FML Bucks
Estimate: $7.972 million
A sub-$20 million weekend with bad buzz and 'B+' Cinemascore spells doom for this unwanted sequel.
RATCHET & CLANK
Cost: 129 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6 million
If an animated movie opens, but a film buff like me only saw a commerical twice, does anyone else know it exists?
BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT
Cost: 110 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.575 million
WARNING: ONLY IN 379 THEATRES! AVOID AT ALL COSTS!!!
Cost: 94 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.835 million
This movie is just going through the motions until it disappears from theatres with its capes between its legs.
Cost: 72 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.775 million
The first of two movies expanding this week that are overpriced due to not expanding as much as expected. AVOID AT ALL COSTS!
Cost: 71 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.731 million
A bad comedy with a competition coming from both the R-rated comedy side (KEANU) and the female-centric side (MOTHER’S DAY). Could still be a force considering the cost.
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE
Cost: 57 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.751 million
Final weekend of relevence before it disappears into the great beyond of the Target bargin bin.
Cost: 32 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.246 million
A moderate drop after a horrible opening weekend. Theatre count is everything this weekend.
A HOLOGRAM FOR THE KING
Cost: 27 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.043 million
A smaller than expected expansion this weekend (523 screens instead of 600+) makes this a little too expensive to consider, even as 8th screen filler.
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Cost: 24 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.044 million
Faces direct competition for the first time this weekend. Not a huge drop is expected but enough to be unplayable.
Cost: 15 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.6985 million
The slam dunk Bonus pick last weekend is anything but this weekend. A 7th & 8th screen filler? Maybe.
EYE IN THE SKY
Cost: 15 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.5418 million
Too few screens to be a player, especially with the same price as the movie above it.
I have no confidence in my projections because of many unanswerable questions. How much will THE JUNGLE BOOK fall in the "calm before the storm" weekend? Will Key & Peele's huge fanbase show up? Does anyone know RATCHET & CLANK exists? My "safe" lineup:
KEANU, BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT, ZOOTOPIA x5, THE BOSS
Total Cost: 997 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $85.15 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!