Fantasy Box Office: April 29 - May 1

THE JUNGLE BOOK

Cost: 804 FML Bucks

Estimate: $35.077 million

After another huge weekend, TJB is poised to win its third weekend in a row before a Civil War hits theatres.  But how big will it be?  I can't see a non-animated Disney movie to hold over 60%, even without any new competition.

KEANU

Cost: 346 FML Bucks

Estimate: $17.15 million

A hilarious comedy from the stars/creators of Key & Peele that will sure to test just how powerful television stars can be on the silver screen.  It is 'R'-rated and unabashedly so.  Could go anywhere in the teens or even low 20s.

MOTHER’S DAY

Cost: 309 FML Bucks

Estimate: $12.31 million

Another Garry Marshall "Day" movie for everyone to ignore again.  That cast could open any other movie in the universe.  But that trailer is as bad as the price is high.

THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR

Cost: 172 FML Bucks

Estimate: $7.972 million

A sub-$20 million weekend with bad buzz and 'B+' Cinemascore spells doom for this unwanted sequel.

RATCHET & CLANK

Cost: 129 FML Bucks

Estimate: $6 million

If an animated movie opens, but a film buff like me only saw a commerical twice, does anyone else know it exists?

BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT

Cost: 110 FML Bucks

Estimate: $5.575 million

WARNING: ONLY IN 379 THEATRES!  AVOID AT ALL COSTS!!!

ZOOTOPIA

Cost: 94 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.835 million

This movie is just going through the motions until it disappears from theatres with its capes between its legs.

GREEN ROOM

Cost: 72 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.775 million

The first of two movies expanding this week that are overpriced due to not expanding as much as expected.  AVOID AT ALL COSTS!

THE BOSS

Cost: 71 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.731 million

A bad comedy with a competition coming from both the R-rated comedy side (KEANU) and the female-centric side (MOTHER’S DAY).  Could still be a force considering the cost.

BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

Cost: 57 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.751 million

Final weekend of relevence before it disappears into the great beyond of the Target bargin bin.

CRIMINAL

Cost: 32 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.246 million

A moderate drop after a horrible opening weekend.  Theatre count is everything this weekend.

A HOLOGRAM FOR THE KING

Cost: 27 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.043 million

A smaller than expected expansion this weekend (523 screens instead of 600+) makes this a little too expensive to consider, even as 8^th screen filler.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2

Cost: 24 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.044 million

Faces direct competition for the first time this weekend.  Not a huge drop is expected but enough to be unplayable.

COMPADRES

Cost: 15 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.6985 million

The slam dunk Bonus pick last weekend is anything but this weekend.  A 7^th & 8^th screen filler?  Maybe.

EYE IN THE SKY

Cost: 15 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.5418 million

Too few screens to be a player, especially with the same price as the movie above it.

My Cineplex

           I have no confidence in my projections because of many unanswerable questions.  How much will THE JUNGLE BOOK fall in the "calm before the storm" weekend?  Will Key & Peele's huge fanbase show up?  Does anyone know RATCHET & CLANK exists?  My "safe" lineup:

KEANU, BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT, ZOOTOPIA x5, THE BOSS

Total Cost: 997 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonus: $85.15 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

Fantasy Box Office: April 22-24

THE JUNGLE BOOK

Cost: 804 FML Bucks

Estimate: $56.728 million

Where does a movie go after a $102+ million opening weekend with a 90%+ on RT & an ‘A’ Cinemascore?  Back to the top of the box office.  The question is how high it will go.  I’m going the conservative route with my prediction but a $60 million weekend won’t surprise me.

THE HUNTSMAN: WINTER’S WAR

Cost: 324 FML Bucks

Estimate: $25.5 million

A Kristin Stewart-less pre-sequel to the 2012 Stewart hit.  With the interest in this movie low & the Tomatometer even lower, how much can the starpower of Theron/Hemsworth/Blunt/Chastain take in at the cinema this week?  I think I’m on the high side, but you never know.

BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT

Cost: 134 FML Bucks

Estimate: $10.1 million

A big disappointment for those of us who went all out with it last weekend.  The rule of thumb with well-received minority-centric movie falls as close to 50% as possible.  But can this threequel drop just 45% & win the Bonus?  Maybe.

ZOOTOPIA

Cost: 67 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.8852 million

Competition from TJB finally knocked this animated film down a few pegs but still had a respectable weekend and should have another one this weekend.

THE BOSS

Cost: 64 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.4811 million

As expected, this fell 57%+ last weekend.  This is a real wild card this weekend.  A sub-50% drop might make this a playable option.  But I doubt it.

ELVIS & NIXON

Cost: 62 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.6 million

WARNING: ONLY IN 379 THEATRES!  AVOID AT ALL COSTS!!!

BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

Cost: 48 FML Bucks

Estimate: $4.514 million

This movie is just going through the motions until it disappears from theatres with its capes between its legs.

CRIMINAL

Cost: 35 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.3068 million

A complete flop that isn’t worth even speaking its title, let alone consider playing in this game.  Just keep reading.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2

Cost: 32 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.69416 million

A moderately successful mom-com (a comedy only your mother could love) that has been on my radar just about every week thus far.  This week is slightly different.  Not chance to play this week.

MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN

Cost: 13 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.93 million

Finally fell like a regular movie last weekend.  This weekend may be its last stand but not worth it.

EYE IN THE SKY

Cost: 12 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.777 million

One last week for Alan Rickman to be in the spotlight but not in your lineup.  Sad…

GOD’S NOT DEAD 2

Cost: 11 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.7508 million

Can this hateful movie just go away already?!

COMPADRES

Cost: 10 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.05 million

A Mexican film that is showing up in 350ish theatres this weekend.  Is its price enough to coax me & you into playing it?  Maybe…

MILES AHEAD

Cost: 10 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.731 million

Don Cheadle’s directorial debut is this Miles Davis biopic that expands enough to be in the game this week.  Just not enough to be useful in the game.

THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT

Cost: 9 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.6165 million

The third part of a YA series that has made half the money as the first one did two years ago.  Not worth shifting your lineup to have one.

My Cineplex

            I am going against my own figures a little this week.  I should go with HUNTSMAN but I have little to no confidence in my own calculations.  Maybe I should change my method to my madness.  Anyhoo, my “safe” play this weekend:

THE JUNGLE BOOK, BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT, COMPADRES x6

Total Cost: 998 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonus: $85.15 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

Fantasy Box Office: April 15-17

THE JUNGLE BOOK

Cost: 748 FML Bucks

Estimate: $78.7 million

Another new live-action remake of a classic Disney animated film.  This time, we get Jon Favreau’s take on the Rudland Kipling novel with CGI everything except Mowgli.  The 94% on the Tomatometer (at writing) might help this hit $80 million plus but I’ll stay a little cautious.  Will win the Bonus if the next movie underperforms.

BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT

Cost: 202 FML Bucks

Estimate: $24.35 million

A threequel to one of the most successful African-American franchises.  More importantly, this is the first minority-centric, non-spoof comedy in almost three months.  Look for this to possibly dominate the Bonus race.

THE BOSS

Cost: 143 FML Bucks

Estimate: $10.6137 million

A shocking victory in overall box office & in the FML Bonus contest.  Can McCarthy repeat?  After a ‘C+’ Cinemascore, not a chance.

BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

Cost: 116 FML Bucks

Estimate: $11.6815 million

After a shocking loss last week & three weeks of underperforming, BvS should fall a normal amount this weekend.  Right?  I mean, not enough to win the Bonus but enough to look respectable now.  Right?!

ZOOTOPIA

Cost: 93 FML Bucks

Estimate: $9.324 million

Now it it’s 7^th weekend, this overachieving Disney animated film finally has competition in THE JUNGLE BOOK.  Regardless, should have a respectable, “might be playable” weekend.

CRIMINAL

Cost: 90 FML Bucks

Estimate: $7 million

A poorly reviewed, under-marketed action movie with Costner & Reynolds.  Avoid at all costs.

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2

Cost: 39 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.368 million

This crowd-pleasing but critically reviled (including by yours truly) rom-com sequel continues to do well relative to its budget.  Another sub-50% drop this weekend & in contention as a screen filler.

MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN

Cost: 31 FML Bucks

Estimate: $3.059 million

The Christian-themed movie that won’t go away.  This is a very solid play as a screen filler.

HARCORE HENRY

Cost: 27 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.043 million

Tainted as a failure by both box office prognosticators & FML’ers, stay away from this.

GOD’S NOT DEAD 2

Cost: 24 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.027 million

Mean-spirited religious movie that got rejected this time around.  FML’ers should reject this too.

THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT

Cost: 21 FML Bucks

Estimate: $2.1108 million

About 50% behind the pace of the first movie two years ago.  Too expensive for consideration this week.

EYE IN THE SKY

Cost: 20 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.8824 million

Doing fairly well for a movie I’ve heard very little about.  Still not worth playing.

10 CLOVERFIELD LANE

Cost: 20 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.888 million

Can this become the first movie to be part of the Perfect Cineplex for the fourth straight weekend?  Probably too expensive this week.  Too bad.

DEADPOOL

Cost: 13 FML Bucks

Estimate: $1.355 million

This is the last weekend this will torture me with its presence.  Good riddance!

HELLO, MY NAME IS DORIS

Cost: 11 FML Bucks

Estimate: $0.966 million

A decent little film gets one more weekend in the spotlight.  Not worth playing though.

My Cineplex

            One projection that I have above most other players is BARBERSHOP hitting well over $21 million.  Again, the target audience has been waiting for a movie like this.  After maxing out on that, there’s about 190 bucks to divide among four screens, to be filled by one mid-range option & three low-end screens, which leads me to a lineup of:

BARBERSHOP: THE NEXT CUT x4, BATMAN V SUPERMAN, MIRACLE FROM HEAVEN x2, DEADPOOL

Total Cost: 999 FML Bucks

Estimate After Bonus: $124.554 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

Review: THE BOSS

I do not own the above image. Copyright Universal Pictures.  All Rights Reserved.

            What is the most miserable type of movie to watch?  To many, movies with disturbing images, like torture porn or Lars Von Trier films, are seen as endurance tests or feats of nerve & even artistry.  To others, a movie with a depressing subject, like SCHINDLER’S LIST and SPOTLIGHT, is brutal to sit through without feeling depressed feelings afterwards.  While I can’t defend the former, the latter classification of movies features some the best movies of the past few decades, such as the two movies listed above.  But to me, unfunny comedies are the ultra-marathon equivalent of endurance tests in the movie world.  And THE BOSS is among the roughest ones to sit through.

            Michelle Darnell (McCarthy) is one of the most successful businesswomen on the planet.  That is until she’s busted for insider trading, serving prison time & having her assets frozen in the meantime.  Once released, the only person who doesn’t outright reject Darnell is her former tortured personal assistant Claire (Bell), who reluctantly opens her home to her.  How can Michelle get back on her feet?

            You get this sense of doom from the first scene of the movie where we see young Michelle being returned to a Catholic orphanage three times during her childhood with Margo Martindale playing the nun in charge.  Michelle has developed quite a mouth on her while Ms. Martindale has to just stand there, the script rendering her helpless.  This opening exchange is a perfect representation of what THE BOSS is: a good concept that consistently & almost exclusively goes for the lowest common denominator instead of using the situation created to make bigger, specialized joke.  There are numerous opportunities just like this one.  After a show in Chicago, a conversation about Claire getting a raise into a joke about goofy Michelle’s face looks carrying the conversation while getting her teeth whitened with a dental apparatus in her mouth.  The one scene that takes place on the grounds of the prison isn’t about the posh lifestyle behind the barbed wire but just serves as an excuse for Michelle to assault her financial advisor with a tennis ball.  The rivalry between the groups of young female scouts should be about strengthening the skills of future successful professional women.  Instead, Michelle & the opposing alpha-mom exchange vulgarities (not vulgar insults, just the choice four-letter-words) that culminates in a poorly-shot streetfight.  Nothing says female empowerment like a grown woman clotheslining a preteen girl.

            Bell’s Claire is a frumpily dressed single mom, a fact which she reminds every person she interacts with during the movie, exists purely as a punching bag for Darnell.  Their biggest confrontation comes not from the previously mentioned raise, not during the process of creating the homemade brownie company but from her wardrobe choice for a date.  The fight soon devolves into a minute long shot of McCarthy & Bell swatting each other’s boobs.  How hilarious!  For the record, I laughed one time at the most throwaway but least dirty joke in the movie.

            Where THE BOSS completely loses me is in the third act turn that begins with a misunderstanding between Claire & Michelle after a meeting with Renault (Dinklage), Michelle’s former lover turned business rival whose presence lingers for the entire movie like a fart in a near-empty theatre.  From that meeting, the movie spins completely out of control, ending in a sequence that belongs in a bad version of last year’s SPY.  But before the movie gets there, Darnell goes to find herself with a person only alluded to briefly in one scene early in the movie.  The meeting between Darnell & this character makes you like her even less than you did before because it makes Michelle’s intentions that much less genuine & heartfelt.

            Then come the last two “jokes”.  The first is a callback to an earlier moment & serves as a cheap ending to a subplot that hadn’t been referenced in at least 45 minutes.  The second “joke” is actually a gag reel over the end credits.  A staple of the 1990s, the gag reel should have been put to rest after Pixar added such scenes to their end credits in a few of their early movies in the late 90s & early 2000s.  But what’s worse than actually adding it to begin with is that it’s not funny at all; just one last bankrupt attempt to get people to laugh at cheap antics.

            My patience for Melissa McCarthy is running pretty thin.  I’m sure she loves her husband Ben Falcone, who directed & co-wrote this movie with her.  I’m sure in real life that they love each other & are soulmates.  But their professional collaborations, first with TAMMY (full disclosure: I haven’t seen yet despite it being on HBO for about a year) and now with THE BOSS, are complete failures as comedies with bottom of the barrel jokes, choppy editing to remove jokes that epically failed and characters who aren’t worth our time.  A complete waste of time, resources & talent.

Zero Stars