Thursday, March 31, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: April 1-3
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE
Friday Cost: 346 FML Bucks
Friday Estimate: $19.10 million
Saturday Cost: 472 FML Bucks
Saturday Estimate: $27.19 million
Sunday Cost: 334 FML Bucks
Sunday Estimate: $18.451 million
After the $166 million weekend with an $81 million opening night and the small number of new movies, the powers that be decided to keep each BvS day as an option. But with 29% on the Tomatometer a ‘B’ Cinemascore, all signs point to a larger than normal drop for a huge blockbuster. I’m thinking a 61% drop, with daily percentage splits of 29.5/42/28.5. STAY AWAY!
Cost: 251 FML Bucks
Estimate: $16.213 million
Another weekend, another weekend as the top family option. It’s doing so well right now that its net theatre change is +28. Insanity! Not enough to pull off a surprise upset for the Bonus, but it is a better option than any of the BvS choices.
GOD’S NOT DEAD 2
Cost: 212 FML Bucks
Estimate: $13.5 million
The sequel for the surprise hit of Spring 2014 as it made over $9 million in less than 800 theatres. It opens in 2300+ theatres this time so the weekend gross will be higher, but with all the Christian movies that have been out so far this year including a more palatable one in more theatres this weekend, this should be drowned out enough to not be in contention for the Bonus.
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Cost: 157 FML Bucks
Estimate: $11.61 million
The real crowdpleaser of the weekend with an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore. And with a target audience who isn’t the type to run out early to see this, the drop should be minimal. I’m talking Bonus-winning minimal.
MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN
Cost: 93 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.33 million
No longer the newest Christian-centric movie in theatres. But the word is out about this as a feel-good kind of religious experience. It’s just too high priced for Bonus contention.
THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT
Cost: 71 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.717 million
Already down to just above 3000 theatres, this penultimate entry in the franchise is dead in the water. Don’t even bother.
MEET THE BLACKS
Cost: 55 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.791 million
A few weeks after a black-centric romcom, we get another black-centric spoof of THE PURGE. Opening in only 1011 theatres, needs a good PTA to have a chance at the Bonus. It will fall short.
EYE IN THE SKY
Cost: 53 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.19 million
A well-received drama about drone strikes in the War on Terror notable for being the final on-screen appearance of the late Alan Rickman. Other than that sentimental factor, how many people are clamoring to see that?
HELLO, MY NAME IS DORIS
Cost: 52 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.356 million
Last week’s Bonus winner expands into 959 theatres this weekend. Sure to be moderately successful but not nearly enough to win back-to-back weeks.
Cost: FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.938 million
Now in under 2000 theatres…NOPE! Not doing it. Not giving commentary on this. I’m always wrong. You’re on your own.
10 CLOVERFIELD LANE
Cost: 50 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.97 million
This movie’s success still fascinates me. Will be a non-factor this weekend, but…wow.
I SAW THE LIGHT
Cost: 47 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1 million
A Hank Williams biopic expanding to only 741 theatres. There’s something wrong here. Not worth your time or attention.
LONDON HAS FALLEN
Cost: 28 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.514 million
Drops to about 1500 theatres this weekend while probably splitting screens in most places. Still a great low priced filler, as the cheapest option usually is.
A difficult weekend at first sight, quickly turned into something fairly easy. One medium-priced movie was a fantastic value but going all-in with it is a risk. But being able to easily round out the Cineplex with low-priced filler while using near maximum dollars made my choice a no-brainer:
GREEK WEDDING x6, LONDON HAS FALLEN x2
Total Cost: 998 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $84.685 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!