Friday, March 18, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: March 18-20
THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT
Cost: 585 FML Bucks
Estimate: $33 million
The third of four movies in the YA series of books is even worse than the first two (review coming later this weekend). The second one last year was down $2 million opening weekend & $20 million overall from the 2014 original, despite the 3D additions. No 3D this time plus the declining interest in this series & YA adaptations in general will doom this one. Should receive no consideration
Cost: 530 FML Bucks
Estimate: $34.883 million
One weekend after cracking its ceiling last week in making $51+ million, ZOOTOPIA looks to repeat as weekend champ for the third straight weekend. It will be a little more difficult with the competition from the above YA adaptation but this has one thing going for it: extremely positive word of mouth.
MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN
Cost: 225 FML Bucks
Estimate: $13 million
A new, based on true events Christian movie from the makers of HEAVEN IS FOR REAL, which made $22 million opening weekend two years ago. Can this one with a star in the center repeat? No.
10 CLOVERFIELD LANE
Cost: 207 FML Bucks
Estimate: $11.6 million
A horror-thriller with a great 89% on the Tomatometer but a bad ‘B-“ Cinemascore. Who will moviegoers listen to: professional film buffs or average horror fans? I expect more of the latter.
Cost: 110 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6.89 million
The sixth weekend of a comic book movie usually means a small decline in theatre count and not that small of a drop. DEADPOOL will be no different. (Yes, this is the same spiel as last week. I think it will actually happen this week.)
LONDON HAS FALLEN
Cost: 83 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.96 million
The third weekend for this sequel & it’s still in over 3000 theatres. Expect a sub-50% drop and the Bonus.
WHISKY TANGO FOXTROT
Cost: 42 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.799 million
A terrific hold last weekend took everyone by surprise. Can it do it again? Yes, but even a 40% drop is too much to be in serious Bonus contention.
THE PERFECT MATCH
Cost: 36 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.061 million
Last week, this did everything it was supposed to do to win the Bonus but didn’t thanks to that absurd hold by DEADPOOL. TPM will act just like every other rom-com for minorities: a 50% drop & not win the Bonus
THE YOUNG MESSIAH
Cost: 25 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.58 million
No one saw this last week when it was brand new. What makes anyone think devout Christians will see it this weekend with that new, contemporary Christian movie out there now?
THE BROTHERS GRIMSBY
Cost: 22 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.303 million
Sure to split screens with older movies this weekend in most theatres after tanking this past weekend. My estimate is generous.
GODS OF EGYPT
Cost: 19 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.273 million
No longer the only Christian themed movie in town. Should suffer like KFP3 last weekend.
Cost: 19 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.232 million
Now has TWO Christian movies in front of it. Could go much lower than my projection.
Cost: 17 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.028 million
This movie’s success still fascinates me. Will be a non-factor this weekend, but…wow.
Cost: 17 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1 million
A 2015 Sundance comedy that’s barely marketed & is very rotten on RT? Yeah…don’t bother with this one.
KUNG FU PANDA 3
Cost: 14 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.846 million
One last weekend for the best movie so far this year. Won’t be a factor but…PLEASE GO SEE IT! PRETTY PLEASE!!!
Each of the three decisions I needed to make this week ended up being easy. For the high priced half of the foundation, ZOOTOPIA is the best option. Because of the cost of my projected Bonus winner, taking multiple screens of LHF is the best choice of the foundation. The final two screens mean simply plugging in two random, low-priced movies, leaving me with:
ZOOTOPIA, LONDON HAS FALLEN x5, THE PERFECT MATCH, GODS OF EGYPT.
Total Cost: 1000 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $78.017 million
Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!