Friday, March 4, 2016

Fantasy Box Office: March 4-6

ZOOTOPIA
Cost: 699 FML Bucks
Estimate: $67 million
First new kids movie in six weeks is the new Disney animated flick.  Before you go off and rubber-stamp a $75 million weekend, a little fact: Only two non-Pixar, non-summer animated movies have hit $60 million opening weekend, THE LEGO MOVIE and THE LORAX.  ZOOTOPIA isn’t a known commodity like those two so player beware.  But if DEADPOOL taught us anything, trends can be shattered.

LONDON HAS FALLEN
Cost: 247 FML Bucks
Estimate: $23.6 million
The sequel to the shocking 2012 hit has huge downsides & upsides.  OLYMPUS opened to $30+ million but got mixed reviews & didn’t face competition like DEADPOOL so that result is skewed.  However, LONDON opens in at least 200 more screens & is 24 minutes shorter, allowing for one more showing per screen per day.  I’m a little optimistic.

DEADPOOL
Cost: 201 FML Bucks
Estimate: $17.113 million
Its reign at #1 will end after three weekends.  Some of its target audience may be taken away by the previous movie in this piece but with the love this movie has received by fanboys, they may come back for seconds or thirds this weekend.

WHISKY TANGO FOXTROT
Cost: 106 FML Bucks
Estimate: $9 million
Tina Fey means box office power right?  Right?!  Not exactly.  Fey hasn’t had a $15 million opening that didn’t involve Muppets since DATE NIGHT w/ Steve Carrell six years ago.  Here, she’s the lone star & hits only 2300 theatres.  Filler is its only purpose this week, if at all.

GODS OF EGYPT
Cost: 69 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6.364 million
A $14 million opening, $140 million budget, 14% on RT, ‘B-‘ Cinemascore and one pissed off filmmaker.  What else could go wrong for this movie?  How about a 55% drop?

KUNG FU PANDA 3
Cost: 65 FML Bucks
Estimate: $5.784 million
Not only is this not the newest animated movie in theatres, it’s also not the best reviewed animated movie in theatres anymore.  This could plummet or drop less if ZOOTOPIA’s overflow go elsewhere in multiplexes.

RISEN
Cost: 43 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.089 million
We inch closer & closer to Easter and RISEN is still the only Christian-themed movie in cinemas.  It may continue to reap the benefits for one more weekend.  Enough to play?  Maybe.

THE REVENANT
Cost: 40 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.97 million
Winner of three Academy Awards…but not the big one and it will suffer the consequences because of it.

EDDIE THE EAGLE
Cost: 33 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.164 million
A well-liked but under-watched inspirational sports movie.  Too bad he’s British.  Has no legs in the States.

HOW TO BE SINGLE
Cost: 32 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.754 million
[Insert failed ‘ladies night’ joke here]

TRIPLE 9
Cost: 31 FML Bucks
Estimate: $3.055 million
Missed last week’s estimates by 50%.  This weekend it’s underpriced & has a great shot at winning the Bonus, as long as theatres don’t bury it.

THE WITCH
Cost: 31 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.533 million
A disaster of mammoth proportions on multiple levels.  And now it loses over 1400 theatres.  Ouch.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DOOR
Cost: 27 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.8 million
If a horror movie opens in 500 theatres with little fanfare & no one shows up, does it exist?

RACE
Cost: 25 FML Bucks
Estimate: $2.052 million
Inspirational true sports story holding on for dear life.  The theatre count kills it.

STAR WARS THE FORCE AWAKENS
Cost: 24 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.792 million
Final weekend for the highest grossing movie of all time in the United States.  Will make a fine theatre filler one last time, if necessary.

My Cineplex
            There are two types of realistic lineups this week: ZOOTOPIA with seven filler screens or three LONDON HAS FALLEN screens w/ WTF & four fillers.  ZOOTOPIA has a solid base but a little bit of history against it.  The reviews may not be great but the target audience for LHF may not care.  All that being said, I’m taking the safe route, especially after the Thursday night numbers.  Need to get off to a good start.


ZOOTOPIA, WHISKY TANGO FOXTROT, TRIPLE 9 x6
Total Cost: 991 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $102.327 million

As always,

Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!

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