Friday, March 25, 2016
Fantasy Box Office: March 25-27
BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE
Friday Cost: 709 FML Bucks
Friday Estimate: $76.34 million
Saturday Cost: 525 FML Bucks
Saturday Estimate: $55.52 million
Sunday Cost: 408 FML Bucks
Sunday Estimate: $41.64 million
The first of the big, highly anticipated comic book movies of 2016 (What's DEADPOOL?). For the third time, a new release was divided into days with Thursday night showings (probably) counting towards Friday's total. I did some research finding the daily splits of these huge blockbusters & after tweaking the formula based on the fact that its Easter weekend to a 44/32/24 split. A Saturday/Sunday or a double Sunday combo is possible if you have the guts to do that. At least one of these screens will be part of the Perfect Cineplex, unless another new sequel overperforms.
Cost: 267 FML Bucks
Estimate: $24.9 million
If there is anything that BvS is not, it’s a family movie. And with no other non-religious movies like it, this will be the choice for those with little children. Just not enough to be useful this weekend.
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 2
Cost: 169 FML Bucks
Estimate: $17.8 million
If there is a box office record that will never be broken, it’s the original’s record of highest gross without hitting #1 for a weekend of over $200 million in 2002. But the real question is how much can this sequel make opening opposite a huge comic-book movie? It’s not unprecedented for an alternative choice to make a lot of money opposite a huge blockbuster.
THE DIVERGENT SERIES: ALLEGIANT
Cost: 134 FML Bucks
Estimate: $12.19 million
The third installment of the series fell 40% from the original installment two years ago as the Young Adult genre seems to have faded. My projection is higher than just about anyone else’s so this could go way lower.
MIRACLES FROM HEAVEN
Cost: 97 FML Bucks
Estimate: $10.1 million
It is Easter weekend and those looking for a Christian faith-based movie have two choices this weekend. MFH is the bigger of the two and could have a great hold or even an increase, but I remain bullish on that idea.
10 CLOVERFIELD LANE
Cost: 71 FML Bucks
Estimate: $6.253 million
Third weekend of a thriller sequel which loses 625 theatres. My wife still hasn't seen it & hopes to see it Tuesday. Who will see this on Easter Sunday?
Cost: 62 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.646 million
What can it do now that it is no longer the newest comic book adaptation in theatres? Could be an alternative to those who are shut out of BvS showings but has the target already seen this twice?
LONDON HAS FALLEN
Cost: 46 FML Bucks
Estimate: $4.109 million
A week after winning the Bonus, this drops over 800 theatres to begin its well earned slide into obscurity.
WHISKY TANGO FOXTROT
Cost: 18 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.68 million
Loses over 1200 theatres on its way to the bargin bin at Best Buy. It deserves better than that.
THE PERFECT MAN
Cost: 12 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.928 million
Leaves about a quarter of its theatres behind. Will the
Cost: 12 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.724 million
This movie’s success still fascinates me. Will be a non-factor this weekend, but…wow.
HELLO, MY NAME IS DORIS
Cost: 9 FML Bucks
Estimate: $1.1 million
What do you call an independent comedy starring a two-time Oscar winner in almost 500 theatres? A runaway Bonus winner.
Cost: 9 FML Bucks
Estimate: $0.81 million
Christian movie #2. Will this be overshadowed by the other faith-based movie & its 500+ theatre drop? Probably.
Despite the insane upside to taking five GREEK WEDDINGS, the downside of it is way too much to go there. So maxing out on BvS’s & DORISes is the play of the week. After plugging in my figures in my spreadsheet & playing around with combinations, I come up with this as the best, low risk play:
BvS Saturday, BvS Sunday, HELLO, MY NAME IS DORIS x5
Total Cost: 987 FML Bucks
Estimate After Bonus: $115.76 million
As always, Good Luck & Buy a Winning Ticket!